You're dealt a pair of 7s. The dealer shows a 3. Split or play it as one hand? Basic strategy answers:
| Split ← | -0.0748 |
| Stand | -0.2522 |
| Hit | -0.3487 |
| Double | -0.6975 |
| You bust on the next card | 46.2% |
| Dealer 3 busts | 37.4% |
Split is not close: it beats Stand by 0.1775 per unit. Getting this one wrong costs $1.77 on a $10 bet, every single time. Across the 340 situations in this chart it ranks 206th by expected value — better than 134 of them, worse than 205. Expected value is per unit staked, computed for multi-deck, dealer stands on soft 17, double after split allowed. The model and the code are published as data.
Against a dealer 3 (37% bust chance), splitting 7s turns one mediocre total into two playable hands while the dealer is vulnerable. With double-after-split allowed, you also keep the option to press each new hand — that's where the split profit comes from.