You're dealt a pair of 2s. The dealer shows a 4. Split or play it as one hand? Basic strategy answers:
| Split ← | +0.0430 |
| Hit | -0.0494 |
| Stand | -0.2111 |
| Double | -0.4221 |
| You bust on the next card | 0.0% |
| Dealer 4 busts | 39.4% |
Split is worth 0.0923 more per unit than Hit. On a $10 bet that is $0.92 handed over every time you get it wrong. Across the 340 situations in this chart it ranks 159th by expected value — better than 181 of them, worse than 158. Expected value is per unit staked, computed for multi-deck, dealer stands on soft 17, double after split allowed. The model and the code are published as data.
Against a dealer 4 (40% bust chance), splitting 2s turns one mediocre total into two playable hands while the dealer is vulnerable. With double-after-split allowed, you also keep the option to press each new hand — that's where the split profit comes from.