You're dealt a pair of 2s. The dealer shows a 3. Split or play it as one hand? Basic strategy answers:
| Split ← | -0.0256 |
| Hit | -0.0826 |
| Stand | -0.2522 |
| Double | -0.5045 |
| You bust on the next card | 0.0% |
| Dealer 3 busts | 37.4% |
Split is worth 0.0570 more per unit than Hit. On a $10 bet that is $0.57 handed over every time you get it wrong. Across the 340 situations in this chart it ranks 187th by expected value — better than 153 of them, worse than 186. Expected value is per unit staked, computed for multi-deck, dealer stands on soft 17, double after split allowed. The model and the code are published as data.
Against a dealer 3 (37% bust chance), splitting 2s turns one mediocre total into two playable hands while the dealer is vulnerable. With double-after-split allowed, you also keep the option to press each new hand — that's where the split profit comes from.