You hold Ace-4 — a soft 15, meaning the ace still counts as 11. Dealer shows 4. The correct basic-strategy play:
| Hit ← | +0.0593 |
| Double | +0.0584 |
| Stand | -0.2111 |
| You bust on the next card | 0.0% |
| Dealer 4 busts | 39.4% |
Hit and Double are almost the same bet here — the gap is 0.0009 per unit, the closest kind of decision in the game. Play hit, but nobody should lose sleep over this one. Across the 340 situations in this chart it ranks 151st by expected value — better than 189 of them, worse than 150. Expected value is per unit staked, computed for multi-deck, dealer stands on soft 17, double after split allowed. The model and the code are published as data.
Against a weak dealer 4 (40% bust chance), soft 15 (Ace-4) is a doubling machine: you can't bust the draw, and every extra chip is placed while the dealer is in trouble. Double — if the table does not allow it, just hit.
Soft hands are where most casual players leak the most: they play them like hard totals and miss every profitable double. Learning the six soft-total rows of the chart is the fastest win-rate upgrade there is.