You hold Ace-4 — a soft 15, meaning the ace still counts as 11. Dealer shows 6. The correct basic-strategy play:
| Double ← | +0.1797 |
| Hit | +0.1182 |
| Stand | -0.1537 |
| You bust on the next card | 0.0% |
| Dealer 6 busts | 42.3% |
Double is worth 0.0615 more per unit than Hit. On a $10 bet that is $0.61 handed over every time you get it wrong. Across the 340 situations in this chart it ranks 105th by expected value — better than 235 of them, worse than 104. Expected value is per unit staked, computed for multi-deck, dealer stands on soft 17, double after split allowed. The model and the code are published as data.
Against a weak dealer 6 (42% bust chance), soft 15 (Ace-4) is a doubling machine: you can't bust the draw, and every extra chip is placed while the dealer is in trouble. Double — if the table does not allow it, just hit.
Soft hands are where most casual players leak the most: they play them like hard totals and miss every profitable double. Learning the six soft-total rows of the chart is the fastest win-rate upgrade there is.