You're dealt a pair of 8s. The dealer shows a 9. Split or play it as one hand? Basic strategy answers:
| Split ← | -0.4054 |
| Hit | -0.5093 |
| Stand | -0.5432 |
| Double | -1.0186 |
| You bust on the next card | 61.5% |
| Dealer 9 busts | 22.8% |
Split is worth 0.1039 more per unit than Hit. On a $10 bet that is $1.04 handed over every time you get it wrong. Across the 340 situations in this chart it ranks 320th by expected value — better than 20 of them, worse than 319. Expected value is per unit staked, computed for multi-deck, dealer stands on soft 17, double after split allowed. The model and the code are published as data.
A pair of 8s is hard 16 — the worst total in blackjack. Splitting escapes the disaster and restarts two hands from 8, which plays far better than 16 against any card, even a 9. It's not about winning big here; it's about losing less, and the math is unambiguous.