You're dealt a pair of 8s. The dealer shows a 7. Split or play it as one hand? Basic strategy answers:
| Split ← | +0.2115 |
| Hit | -0.4148 |
| Stand | -0.4754 |
| Double | -0.8296 |
| You bust on the next card | 61.5% |
| Dealer 7 busts | 26.2% |
Split is not close: it beats Hit by 0.6263 per unit. Getting this one wrong costs $6.26 on a $10 bet, every single time. Across the 340 situations in this chart it ranks 96th by expected value — better than 244 of them, worse than 95. Expected value is per unit staked, computed for multi-deck, dealer stands on soft 17, double after split allowed. The model and the code are published as data.
A pair of 8s is hard 16 — the worst total in blackjack. Splitting escapes the disaster and restarts two hands from 8, which plays far better than 16 against any card, even a 7. It's not about winning big here; it's about losing less, and the math is unambiguous.