You hold a hard 16 (no ace counted as 11). The dealer shows a 10. Here is the mathematically correct basic-strategy play — and why.
| Hit ← | -0.5398 |
| Stand | -0.5404 |
| Double | -1.0796 |
| You bust on the next card | 61.5% |
| Dealer 10 busts | 23.0% |
Hit and Stand are almost the same bet here — the gap is 0.0006 per unit, the closest kind of decision in the game. Play hit, but nobody should lose sleep over this one. It is also the 1st worst spot of the 340 hands in this chart. Expected value is per unit staked, computed for multi-deck, dealer stands on soft 17, double after split allowed. The model and the code are published as data.
A dealer 10 only busts about 21% of the time — most of the time they'll finish with 17 or better. Standing on hard 16 just waits to be beaten. Even though hitting busts you 62% of the time, improving your hand is the lesser risk against a strong dealer card.
Think of it this way: your 16 almost never wins as-is against a made dealer hand. The hit isn't reckless — it's the only path to a total that can actually win.