You're dealt a pair of 3s. The dealer shows a 2. Split or play it as one hand? Basic strategy answers:
| Split ← | -0.1382 |
| Hit | -0.1408 |
| Stand | -0.2928 |
| Double | -0.5641 |
| You bust on the next card | 0.0% |
| Dealer 2 busts | 35.4% |
Split and Hit are almost the same bet here — the gap is 0.0026 per unit, the closest kind of decision in the game. Play split, but nobody should lose sleep over this one. Across the 340 situations in this chart it ranks 230th by expected value — better than 110 of them, worse than 229. Expected value is per unit staked, computed for multi-deck, dealer stands on soft 17, double after split allowed. The model and the code are published as data.
Against a dealer 2 (35% bust chance), splitting 3s turns one mediocre total into two playable hands while the dealer is vulnerable. With double-after-split allowed, you also keep the option to press each new hand — that's where the split profit comes from.